SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5 dominated the fifth COVID-19 epidemiological wave in Mexico (preprint)

In Mexico, the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants dominated the fifth epidemic wave (summer 2022), superseding BA.2, which had circulated during the inter-wave period. The present study uses genome sequencing and statistical and phylogenetic analyses to examine these variants’ prevalence, distribution, and genetic diversity in Mexico from April to August 2022. Over 35% of the sequenced genomes in this period corresponded to the BA.2 variant, 8% to the BA.4, and 56% to the BA.5 variant. Multiple subvariants were identified, but only BA.2.9, BA.2.12.1, BA.5.1, BA.5.2, BA.5.2.1, and BA.4.1 circulated throughout the fifth wave across the entire country, not forming geographical clusters. Contrastingly, other subvariants exhibited a geographically restricted distribution, most notably in the Southeast region, which showed a distinct subvariant dynamic. This study supports previous results showing that this region may be a major entry point and may have contributed to the introduction and evolution of novel variants in Mexico. Furthermore, a differential distribution was observed for certain subvariants among specific States throughout time, which may have contributed to the overall increased diversity observed during this wave compared to the previous one. This study highlights the importance of sustaining genomic surveillance to identify novel variants that may impact public health.

Regional epidemic dynamics and Delta variant diversity resulted in varying rates of spread of Omicron-BA.1 in Mexico (preprint)

The Omicron subvariant BA.1 of SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in November 2021 and quickly spread worldwide, displacing the Delta variant. In Mexico, this subvariant began spreading during the first week of December 2021 and became dominant in the next three weeks, causing the fourth COVID-19 epidemiological surge in the country. Unlike previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, BA.1 did not acquire local substitutions nor exhibited a geographically distinct circulation pattern in Mexico. However, a regional difference in the speed of the replacement of the Delta variant was observed, as some northern states showed persistence of Delta lineages well into February 2022. Mexican states were divided into four regions (North, Central North, Central South, and Southeast) based on the lineage circulation before the dominance of BA.1 to study possible causes for this difference. For each region, the time to fixation of BA.1, the diversity of Delta sublineages in the weeks preceding BA.1 entry, the population density, and the level of virus circulation during the inter-wave interval were determined. An association between a faster Omicron spread and lower Delta diversity, as well as fewer COVID-19 cases during the Delta-BA.1.x inter-wave period, was observed. For example, the North region exhibited the slowest spread but had the highest diversity of Delta sublineages and the greatest number of inter-wave cases relative to the maximum amount of the virus circulating in the region, whereas the Southeast region showed the opposite. Viral diversity and the relative abundance of the virus in a particular area around the time of the introduction of a new lineage seem to have influenced the spread dynamics. Nonetheless, if there is a significant difference in the fitness of the variants or the time allowed for the competition is sufficient, it seems the fitter virus will eventually become dominant, as observed in the eventual dominance of the BA.1.x variant in Mexico. Impact statementThe surveillance of lineage circulation of SARS-CoV-2 has helped identify variants that have a transmission advantage and are of concern to public health and to track the virus dispersion accurately. However, many factors contributing to differences in lineage spread dynamics beyond the acquisition of specific mutations remain poorly understood. In this work, a description of BA.1 entry and dispersion within Mexico is presented, and which factors potentially affected the spread rates of the Omicron variant BA.1 among geographical regions in the country are analyzed, underlining the importance of population density, the proportion of active cases, and viral lineage diversity and identity before the entry of BA.1. Data summaryThis work was carried out using data shared through the GISAID initiative. All sequences and metadate are available through GISAID with the accession EPI_SET_220927gw, accession numbers and metadata are also reported in the supplemental material of this article. Epidemiological data was obtained though the Secretaria de Salud website (https://www.gob.mx/salud/documentos/datos-abiertos-152127),

Overview of the SARS-CoV-2 genotypes circulating in Latin America during 2021 (preprint)

Latin America is one of the regions in which the COVID-19 pandemic has had a stronger impact, with more than 72 million reported infections and 1.6 million deaths until June 2022. Since this region is ecologically diverse and is affected by enormous social inequalities, efforts to identify genomic patterns of the circulating SARS-CoV-2 genotypes are necessary for the suitable management of the pandemic. To contribute to the genomic surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 in Latin America, we extended the number of SARS-CoV-2 genomes available from the region by sequencing and analyzing the viral genome from COVID-19 patients from seven countries (Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico, Bolivia and Peru). Subsequently, we analyzed the genomes circulating mainly during 2021 including records from GISAID database from Latin America. A total of 1534 genome sequences were generated from seven countries, demonstrating the laboratory and bioinformatics capabilities for genomic surveillance of pathogens that have been developed locally. For Latin America, patterns regarding several variants associated with multiple re-introductions, a relatively low percentage of sequenced samples, as well as an increment in the mutation frequency since the beginning of the pandemic, are in line with worldwide data. Besides, some variants of concern (VOC) and variants of interest (VOI) such as Gamma, Mu and Lambda, and at least 83 other lineages have predominated locally with a country-specific enrichments. This work has contributed to the understanding of the dynamics of the pandemic in Latin America as part of the local and international efforts to achieve timely genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2.

Dominance of Three Sublineages of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Mexico (preprint)

In this study, we analyzed sequences of SARS-CoV-2 isolates of the Delta variant in Mexico, which completely replaced other previously circulating variants in the country due to its transmission advantage. Among Delta sublineages detected, 81.5 % were classified as AY.20, AY.26, and AY.100. According to publicly available data, these sublineages only reached a world prevalence of less than 1%, suggesting a possible Mexican origin. The signature mutations of these sublineages are described, and phylogenetic analyses and haplotype networks were used to track their spread across the country. Other frequently detected sublineages include AY.3, AY.62, AY.103, and AY.113. Over time, the principal sublineages showed different geographical distributions, with AY.20 predominant in Central Mexico, AY.26 in the North, and AY.100 in the Northwest and South/Southeast. This work describes the circulation, from May to November 2021, of the primary sublineages of the Delta variants associated to the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico and reinforces the importance of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance for timely identification of emerging variants that may impact public health.

Emergence and spread of the potential variant of interest (VOI) B.1.1.519 predominantly present in Mexico. (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged in late 2020 and there are at least three variants of concern (B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P1) reported by WHO. These variants have several substitutions in the Spike protein that affect receptor binding; they present increased transmissibility and may be associated with reduced vaccine effectiveness. In the present work, we are reporting the identification of a potential variant of interest harboring the mutations T478K, P681H, and T732A in the Spike protein, within the newly named lineage B.1.1.519, which rapidly outcompeted the preexisting variants in Mexico and has been the dominant virus in the country during the first trimester of 2021.